25 November 2010 - The Aegis Trust today released our new report on the future economic cost of war in Sudan. It finds the potential costs, conservatively estimated, could be over $100bn. In particular, costs could include:
• US$50billion to Sudan itself in lost GDP;
• US$25billion of GDP relative to a more stable situation in neighbouring countries; and
• US$30 billion in peacekeeping and humanitarian costs to the international community.
After twenty years of civil war, and the atrocities in Darfur, there is a potential for a return to war during political instability surrounding the referendum on independence for the South. Everyone is aware of the potential human costs if violence breaks out. The sheer size of the potential economic costs will also, we hope, concentrate minds on the need to peacefully navigate Sudan through this moment of risk.
Economic analysis underpinning the report was carried out by Frontier Economics, and the report was supported by the Institute for Security Studies in South Africa and the Society for International Development in Kenya.
